A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
